Gilbert Burns is facing a critical point in his career. Four years have passed since his attempt to capture the UFC welterweight title, and while the 38-year-old veteran showed resilience after that setback, time appears to have caught up, resulting in the first three-fight losing streak of his career. This difficult period could extend on Saturday when Burns headlines UFC Vegas 106 against the undefeated Michael Morales.
This bout represents a significant opportunity for Morales. Holding a perfect 17-0 record overall (5-0 in the UFC), Morales is widely considered a future champion prospect. He has consistently overcome more experienced fighters, including Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Max Griffin in his last three victories. A win against Burns, which many anticipate, would likely secure him a spot in the top 10 rankings. However, “Durinho” is a seasoned veteran who cannot be easily dismissed.
Beyond the main event, the main card features several other compelling matchups. Paul Craig will fight for his spot in the organization against Rodolfo Bellato. Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos are set to compete in a lightweight contest. Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev are expected to deliver an action-heavy fight aiming for a highlight-reel finish. The main card opener pits streaking featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa against each other.
Event Details
UFC Vegas 106 is scheduled to take place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, May 17th.
The seven-fight preliminary card is set to begin at 4 p.m. ET, streaming on ESPN+. The five-fight main card follows at 7 p.m. ET, also available on ESPN+.
Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Prediction
Let`s be clear: Gilbert Burns possesses the ability to win this fight. However, for him to hand Michael Morales his first professional defeat, many things would need to go perfectly in his favor.
Burns` grappling is a known threat. If he can take the fight to the ground early, he has the tools to wear down Morales and neutralize the size difference. Given this is a potential five-round fight, winning the early rounds would significantly benefit Burns. Morales` cardio over 25 minutes is relatively untested, making a strategy focused on pushing the pace and dragging him into deep waters a key component of Burns` game plan.
Burns also retains significant power in his striking, so he isn`t without options if the fight turns into a stand-up battle. However, choosing to purely strike is likely not his most advantageous path.
Morales demonstrates incredibly solid fundamentals and intelligent striking. He utilizes superb footwork and well-timed feints to set up his more dynamic techniques. His athleticism allows for quick recovery from errors, including potential takedowns. Just when an opponent might think Morales is on the defensive, he can explosively escape danger and turn the tables. Once he builds momentum, he becomes exceptionally difficult to contain.
Burns has recently shown he can still compete with the elite, but he has undeniably lost a step. The 13-year age difference between him and Morales, coupled with the significant disparity in career mileage and gym hours, is a major factor. Had this been the version of Burns from two or three years ago, the fight would be much closer to a coin flip. As it stands today, Morales is a heavy favorite, and for good reason.
Pick: Morales by Decision
Main Card Predictions
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato Prediction
Rodolfo Bellato is an exciting fighter to follow. The strong Brazilian`s first two UFC bouts were absolute wars, and at times he has displayed flashes of top-15 talent. However, it`s challenging to fully commit to that assessment when he absorbs so much damage in his fights. Perhaps he will adopt a more measured approach against Paul Craig.
Paul Craig is fully aware of the stakes. A win secures his future in the octagon; a loss likely means the end of his UFC run.
His uninspired performance against Bo Nickal, a result that looks even worse considering Nickal`s subsequent challenges, did not help his standing. Craig has also historically been a slow starter, and allowing Bellato to dictate the pace would be the worst-case scenario for him.
Bellato is expected to come out aggressively, as is typical. It seems improbable that Craig will be able to pull off one of his signature comeback victories. I anticipate a definitive knockout win for “Trator.”
Pick: Bellato by Knockout
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos Prediction
Mairon Santos is definitely not easing into his UFC career after winning The Ultimate Fighter 32. “The Legend” (a nod to the nickname controversy) is making a rapid turnaround after competing in March and is moving up a division to face Sodiq Yusuff, an opponent with considerably more UFC experience. This might be a form of self-imposed challenge after a controversial decision win over Francis Marshall, but Santos must be careful to avoid stifling his considerable potential.
Yusuff`s move to the lightweight division (155 pounds) appears to be permanent, which raises my concern for Santos even further, as it suggests Yusuff has successfully bulked up for this weight class. Yusuff has always showcased strong striking skills, though knockouts haven`t been frequent. Removing a difficult weight cut could potentially unleash his offensive game. With increased energy, Yusuff might be inclined to unleash his hands early and aggressively.
Perhaps I am being overly cautious in my expectations for Santos, but I have seen Yusuff pose significant challenges for too many competent fighters to pick against him here. Yes, I am predicting against a recent TUF champion.
Pick: Yusuff by Decision
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev Prediction
This fight has the potential to be absolute chaos. You bring in Dustin Stoltzfus when you expect a fight to end inside the distance, and the same holds true for Nursulton Ruziboev. While both fighters have decisions on their records, expect them to meet in the center and trade heavy shots in this matchup.
This scenario favors Stoltzfus, who secured a surprising knockout victory over Marc-Andre Barriault in November after Barriault decided to slug it out with him against the cage. Moments later, Stoltzfus was celebrating a first-round finish.
With Ruziboev likely pressing forward aggressively, opportunities will certainly arise for Stoltzfus to potentially steal the fight. However, Ruziboev`s superior accuracy and ferocity are expected to be the deciding factors. He should be able to land damaging strikes on the feet before finishing the fight, possibly with ground-and-pound or a submission on the mat.
Pick: Ruziboev by Submission
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizel Costa Prediction
This is excellent matchmaking, featuring two veteran featherweights who are currently on somewhat under-the-radar winning streaks.
Julian Erosa is likely the more familiar name to most fans, having ground his way through competition for 15 years and building a reputation as a tough out. Whether the fight stays standing or goes to the ground, the tall, rangy, and versatile Erosa can present problems for any opponent.
Melquizel Costa has been making up for lost time since his UFC debut in 2023. He is currently on a three-fight winning streak and aims to make it four victories in just eleven months if he can get past Erosa.
Costa`s fights are rarely textbook, but his ability to recover and battle back from adversity is one of his most impressive qualities. The same cannot always be said for Erosa, who has occasionally looked flat in the first round when not performing at his best. On the other hand, Erosa also has multiple first-round finishes to his credit.
I lean slightly towards Erosa in this contest. I believe the fight will extend beyond the initial five minutes, and I favor Erosa`s high-level experience to guide him to a victory. I predict “Juicy J” will take the win by decision after a competitive three-round battle.
Pick: Erosa by Decision
