The UFC returns to the APEX for UFC Vegas 105. The main event is a featherweight fight between Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy. Will Murphy become a top contender, or will Emmett get back into title contention? Let`s look at some picks for this weekend`s fights.
Pat Sabatini (+190) is fighting Joanderson Brito in the co-main event. Brito is doing well in the UFC, but he shouldn`t be such a big favorite. This is a fight between a striker and a grappler. Brito is a good enough grappler to avoid being submitted, but if the fight goes to the ground, Sabatini should control and win. Sabatini`s wrestling should make that happen.
Talita Alencar (-114) is fighting Vanessa Demopoulos in the first fight of the night. This is a simple matchup: Demopoulos is mainly a grappler, but Alencar is better. Alencar was winning world championships in BJJ when Demopoulos was just starting. Demopoulos isn`t a great wrestler, so it`s unlikely the fight will stay standing for long. This should go to the ground, where Alencar is stronger.
For the main event, betting on Josh Emmett to win by decision is No Bet (+140). The odds are long, but maybe too long. Emmett is 40 and has been out for over a year, but he`s still dangerous, and Murphy isn`t unbeatable. Murphy has been hurt before, and Emmett has knockout power. Instead of betting on Emmett to win outright at underdog odds, a safer bet is on Emmett to win by KO or the fight to end in a Murphy decision (bet pushed in case of decision).
Here are a couple of underdog picks from Contender Series prospects.
Luis Gurule (-265) is fighting Ode Osbourne in a flyweight fight on the main card. Gurule is a former champion, a college wrestler, and is ready for the pros. He has good grappling and cardio. Osbourne is known, and Gurule should control this fight with his wrestling.
Daniel Frunza (-158) is fighting Rhys McKee in a prelim welterweight fight. Frunza is a tough striker. Rhys McKee has not been winning in the UFC, with a 0-4 record. McKee will likely strike with Frunza, which favors Frunza who is tougher and should win, sending McKee to 0-5.
Parlay these two bets together for +124 odds.
It`s been a challenging start to 2025, but things are getting back on track. Last week was a winning week for UFC Mexico. Let`s try for three in a row going into UFC 314 fight week.
Enjoy the fights, good luck!
