UFC is back at the APEX arena this weekend for UFC Vegas 103. The main event is a flyweight bout at short notice between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. Kape was originally scheduled to fight Brandon Royval in a fight that could have determined the number one contender. Now, this is uncertain as these two flyweights compete in the main event of a card that is otherwise not very memorable. However, more fights mean more opportunities for betting.
Asu Almabayev (+176)
The betting line for Saturday’s main event is surprisingly wide. Kape is popular with fans, and Almabayev is taking the fight on short notice. However, this fight is a difficult matchup stylistically for Kape, nicknamed “Starboy.” Almabayev is a tough fighter who can neutralize Kape’s dangerous striking by taking the fight to the ground. Although Kape has improved his ground game, he still allows many takedowns. Muhammad Mokaev defeated Kape by decision using repeated takedowns. While Almabayev is not as athletic as Mokaev, he is a more skilled ground fighter at this point in their careers. If Almabayev has enough stamina for a five-round fight, he could win.
Cody Brundage (+110)
Similar to the main event, it’s unclear why Brundage is not favored in his fight against Julian Marquez in the co-main event. Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak and has consistently shown weaknesses in his wrestling defense. Unless Marquez can secure a guillotine choke, Brundage should be able to control the fight. It would be surprising if Brundage falls into a guillotine, as he has been submitted before, but Marquez is not as dangerous on the ground as Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira.
Andrea Lee (+168)
This might be a risky pick, but it’s worth considering. Lee is fighting JJ Aldrich in a preliminary bout on Saturday and arguably should win. Lee is the underdog because she is currently on a five-fight losing streak. Despite this, some of those fights were very close, and Aldrich is not a top-level opponent. Lee can outstrike Aldrich and has better wrestling skills for mixing up her attacks. If not for the losing streak, Lee would likely be the favorite.
Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (-145)
Pinto is making his UFC debut on Saturday against Austen Lane and is a prospect to watch. From the most recent season of Contender Series, Pinto stood out as a favorite. He has been compared to Alex Pereira because he is large, composed, and hits with significant power. This fighting style is effective against Lane. In his 19-fight career, Lane has lost 5 times, all by knockout. Five of Pinto’s nine professional wins are also by KO. Therefore, Pinto winning by KO seems likely.
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)
In a previous analysis of Barlow, it was noted that defense is not his primary focus. This matches up well with Patterson, who also aims for quick finishes. Five of Barlow’s eight professional fights have ended in the first round, and eight of Patterson’s 15 fights have ended similarly, including his last three. This fight is expected to be short.
No parlay this week because there aren’t many appealing betting lines. The best parlay option would be a Portugal Parlay with Kape and Pinto, but since Almabayev is the pick, that’s not an option.
Last week’s bets were small and still unsuccessful. If Cejudo had gotten a No-Contest ruling, the outcome might have been different, but that’s how it goes. Hopefully, this week will be more successful.
Enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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