Manel Kape is very close to a flyweight championship fight.
The plan was set for the Portuguese fighter when the UFC Vegas 103 main event was first announced: defeat Brandon Royval, a recent title challenger, and then challenge Alexandre Pantoja (or the winner of Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France). However, plans changed when Royval had to withdraw due to injury, and Asu Almabayev stepped in.
Kape should still be the top contender with a victory. He is currently ranked No. 10 in the flyweight division. However, he now faces a less famous opponent who might be even more dangerous than Royval. Reaching the top is never easy.
Don’t dismiss Almabayev, ranked No. 13, from upsetting Kape and potentially demanding a title shot. He has a 4-0 UFC record, a 21-2 professional record, and has won 17 fights in a row. A win against Kape would strengthen his claim for a title opportunity.
If we see the same Manel Kape who fought against Bruno “Bulldog” Silva, he could beat anyone, even Alexandre Pantoja.
Despite Kape’s inconsistent performances, he was excellent at UFC Tampa. Silva is a strong flyweight contender, but Kape made him look outmatched. That was the Kape everyone expected since he joined from RIZIN five years ago.
Asu Almabayev might use similar strategies to Muhammad Mokaev, who won a decision against Kape. Almabayev, unlike Mokaev, is known for ground strikes. While not like Mark Coleman, Almabayev’s ability to score points and maintain control could impress the judges.
Kape needs to avoid letting this fight go to the judges. Almabayev is a decent striker, but his defense will be tested by Kape’s fast and varied attacks. One mistake in a takedown attempt could allow Kape to land a fight-ending knee.
Despite reservations, Almabayev is my pick to be flyweight champion by the end of 2025, so I’m sticking with him. He will disrupt Kape’s plans tonight.
Pick: Almabayev
It’s inaccurate to call every second-to-last fight a co-main event. There are no high stakes, no ranked fighters, no fan favorites, and no legends on farewell tours in the Marquez vs Brundage fight. It’s more accurately described as a penultimate bout.
No disrespect to Julian Marquez (stepping in for Ryan Loder) or Cody Brundage. However, the placement and promotion of this matchup are strange. Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak and hasn’t won since April 2021. His last win was against Sam Alvey.
Brundage was winless in 2024, losing to Bo Nickal and having a no-contest against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He has a 10-6 career record (excluding the NC). This isn’t a clash of top contenders.
Give me Brundage in this fight. He’s a tough wrestler who can withstand Marquez’s striking and use takedowns. Marquez could win because he is desperate, but Brundage always fights like his job is on the line, which is likely true for both fighters here.
Pick: Brundage
The Haqparast vs Ribovics fight is closer to a co-main event.
This lightweight matchup features the experienced Nasrat Haqparast against the exciting Esteban Ribovics. Expect a striking battle, possibly too big for the UFC APEX.
The smaller cage might favor Ribovics, who excels in punishing combinations. However, Haqparast’s left hand can change the fight at any moment, making it a tough fight for Ribovics.
Expect a potential Fight of the Night from these strikers, with Ribovics likely winning by landing more powerful punches.
Pick: Ribovics
William Gomis is often compared to Leon Edwards. He is a skilled and well-rounded fighter with great cardio and a winning mentality. Despite not having many highlight finishes, he is 4-0 in the UFC and recently won a split decision against Joanderson Brito.
Hyder Amil is almost the opposite. The 34-year-old is new to his career and unproven, though he shows knockout potential. His best chance is to catch Gomis early, which is hard against the defensively sound Gomis.
I wrongly picked Brito to beat Gomis last time. I will back Gomis until he faces a top 15 opponent or a more compelling prospect. He has too many tools to handle Amil over three rounds.
Pick: Gomis
Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson are tall welterweights with different styles. Barlow is tactical and picks his shots, while Patterson is more of a counter-fighter who looks for grappling opportunities.
This favors Barlow, who is better at leading the fight. He may not have Patterson’s finishing record, but that’s due to fight dynamics. Barlow won’t force a knockout, which might lead to a win here.
Both fighters have potential in the welterweight division, but I predict Barlow will win by knockout in the second or third round.
Pick: Barlow
Preliminaries
Mario Pinto def. Austen Lane
Chepe Mariscal def. Ricardo Ramos
Danny Silva def. Lucas Almeida
JJ Aldrich def. Andrea Lee
Ramazan Temirov def. Charles Johnson
