UFC Des Moines Predictions

Cory Sandhagen is growing weary of always being just short of the top spot.

His four losses in the UFC came against Aljamain Sterling, T.J. Dillashaw, Petr Yan, and Umar Nurmagomedov. Remarkably, every single one of these fighters went on to compete for the bantamweight title in their very next bout after defeating Sandhagen. This is a tough pattern to have on your record. Sandhagen is clearly recognized as one of the top five or six bantamweights globally, but he has yet to solidify his claim for a title shot.

This places considerable pressure on him as he prepares for Saturday`s UFC Des Moines main event against former two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. The Brazilian fighter has successfully transitioned to 135 pounds, winning his first three fights in the division before a decision loss to Yan. Although Sandhagen possesses a significant size advantage, Figueiredo remains a formidable opponent, and a misstep here could be very damaging to Sandhagen`s title aspirations.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

The narrative of Cory Sandhagen as a top contender still has life in it. Yes, I`m picking “The Sandman” to secure the win here and stay on the verge of that elusive title opportunity. He presents a very challenging matchup for Deiveson Figueiredo. Sandhagen is significantly larger, can handle Figueiredo in stand-up exchanges, and possesses the takedown defense to neutralize Figueiredo if he decides to pursue grappling.

There are certainly potential concerns for Sandhagen. Even a division higher, Figueiredo`s power has proven effective, and he *could* potentially be the first to knock Sandhagen out, though it`s unlikely. Figueiredo is also more well-rounded, as seen in his classic four-fight series with Brandon Moreno that explored every aspect of the octagon.

However, Sandhagen is favored for good reason, and not solely due to his elite striking. It`s possible he initiates wrestling exchanges, using his sheer size to take Figueiredo down and frustrate him on the ground. There`s a straightforward path to victory for Sandhagen; he just needs to execute the strategy.

Sandhagen by decision.

Pick: Sandhagen

Bo Nickal vs. Reinier de Ridder

Oh boy, this fight has the potential to be messy.

Firstly, I was intrigued by this booking when it was announced, and after considering all angles, I`m even more interested. Bo Nickal successfully passed the Paul Craig test, which was a significant step up in competition, but the performance wasn`t particularly thrilling and raised questions about his current development path. Reinier de Ridder, a two-division champion from ONE Championship, is Nickal`s eighth MMA opponent and one who could present serious challenges.

Nickal is among the best pound-for-pound athletes in the sport right now, giving him an edge against almost any middleweight he faces. This includes de Ridder, who is a skilled grappler and intelligent fighter, but someone Nickal should theoretically be able to take down at will. He`s a three-time national wrestling champion. Why wouldn`t he just stick to this strength? Keep the disciplines separate, Bo!

Engaging in grappling exchanges with the submission-focused de Ridder might not be the optimal strategy, but if Nickal wants to regain momentum, it would be beneficial to see him utilize the discipline he excels at perhaps more than anyone else on the planet. Sure, mixing in striking is fine, but a little wrestling would be welcome this time.

I`m prepared for anything. A slow, typical middleweight fight. Nickal dominating de Ridder. Or de Ridder outsmarting Nickal and securing a submission. Anything goes. Regardless of the outcome, I`m entertained.

Pick: Nickal

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Appropriate matchmaking based on age, thank you! Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez both turned 38 late last year, and I have no desire to see them lined up as easy wins for the next wave of welterweights. Let`s acknowledge their hard work and dedication.

Even better, both fighters prefer to stand and strike, making this matchup perfectly suited to their styles. They bring similar kickboxing approaches to the cage, and we should anticipate a competitive, professional three-round battle. Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby delivered excitement last week, and Ponzinibbio and Rodriguez could provide similar thrills (though likely without a sudden finish).

While this might sound harsh, in my estimation, Rodriguez appears to have declined more in recent years, despite having significantly less cage time than Ponzinibbio (Rodriguez will actually have more professional fights than years alive after Saturday). Neither fighter is known for a frenetic pace, but Ponzinibbio`s more diverse striking approach seems to have aged better.

Ponzinibbio by decision.

Pick: Ponzinibbio

Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos

Where might Montel Jackson be in the rankings if he could compete more than once a year? “Quik” is currently on a five-fight winning streak, second only to Mario Bautista (7) and Merab Dvalishvili (11) in the bantamweight division`s longest active streaks, yet his inactivity makes this fact easily overlooked. His appearance here is his first of 2025, following just one fight each in 2024, 2023, and 2022. And he`s a genuinely good fighter! Something worth considering.

This division evolves so rapidly that it wouldn`t be surprising for someone with less UFC experience—like Daniel Marcos—to surpass him in the rankings. Marcos is an excellent striker with dangerous power in his right hand, capable of ending the fight quickly if Jackson makes an error. Fortunately for Jackson, he holds advantages in size and speed, and has faced superior competition.

Marcos remains undefeated but has faced some challenging moments in recent fights, managing to escape with wins. He won`t be as fortunate against Jackson, who will find Marcos` chin and secure a finish in the first or second round.

Pick: Jackson

Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey

While I`m a big fan of the men`s bantamweight division, I`ve questioned this specific fight being placed on the main card due to the relative lack of name recognition for Cameron Smotherman and Serhiy Sidey.

Was the bout between former women`s bantamweight champion Miesha Tate and Yana Santos not deserving of a main card slot? What about ranked strawweights Marina Rodriguez and Gillian Robertson? Or perhaps even the standard heavyweight clash between Thomas Petersen and Don’Tale Mayes, a fight that screams “potentially terrible!” but usually satisfies matchmakers` preference for putting large individuals in the cage.

Regardless, these rising prospects have the opportunity to silence critics with a Fight of the Night performance, which must be what the UFC is hoping for. Smotherman possesses good hands, and while his overall game needs development, his fan-friendly boxing style should keep him relevant at 135 pounds for the next few years. As for Sidey, he also tends to use his grappling defensively and will likely be content to stand and trade with Smotherman.

Smotherman has struggled with consistency, but I believe in his potential, and the best version of him can win the stand-up exchange. I`m predicting a minor upset win for him.

Pick: Smotherman

Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones

I mentioned Smotherman and Sidey could steal the show, but honestly, Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones is the clear favorite for Fight of the Night.

Stephens, a native of Des Moines, couldn`t pass up the opportunity to compete in his hometown despite his success in bare-knuckle boxing. “Uncle Dana” (Dana White) did him a favor by booking him a prominent spot on the card. He also provided him with a willing opponent in Jones, who is also returning to the UFC after an entertaining 4-0 run with Cage Warriors.

If your lasting memory of Jones` first UFC stint is his thrilling debut against Mike Davis, you`ll be pleased to know his approach hasn`t changed. While he possesses technical skill, ultimately, Jones wants to brawl, and it`s guaranteed he will meet Stephens in the center and trade heavy shots.

I would love to see this fight go the distance, as these two would batter each other for three rounds. However, I actually like Stephens to defy expectations here with a vintage knockout finish. The Iowa atmosphere will revitalize “Lil` Heathen” and propel him to victory in what could potentially be his final appearance in the UFC.

Pick: Stephens

Preliminary Bout Predictions

• Yana Santos def. Miesha Tate
• Azamat Bekoev def. Ryan Loder
• Marina Rodriguez def. Gillian Robertson
• Gaston Bolanos def. Quang Le
• Thomas Petersen def. Don’Tale Mayes
• Ivana Petrovic def. Juliana Miller