UFC 316 is set to deliver a significant fight night this Saturday in Newark, NJ, featuring the highly anticipated bantamweight championship rematch between Sean O’Malley and champion Merab Dvalishvili in the main event. Their previous encounter at UFC 306 saw Dvalishvili secure the title with a dominant 25-minute performance. The co-main event adds further intrigue with a women`s bantamweight title clash between Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison, a fight that could potentially pave the way for a showdown with former champion Amanda Nunes.
With a stacked card on tap, MMA experts Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew convened to discuss the most compelling narratives surrounding UFC 316.
Interest Level in O`Malley vs. Dvalishvili 2
Heck: Gentlemen, you know I speak my mind. When this rematch was initially announced, my excitement level was pretty low, maybe a 2.5 out of 10. But now, just a week away, I`m genuinely invested, rating it at least an 8, and it could climb higher.
I`m fascinated by the various angles heading into this fight. The stakes feel incredibly high. Could a win solidify Dvalishvili`s claim as the greatest bantamweight ever? Some already consider him there, so a loss would certainly impact that discussion.
Conversely, for O’Malley, another defeat raises significant questions about his future. Does he follow the path Chael Sonnen suggested, perhaps moving up to featherweight like Rich Franklin? Or does he become the division`s gatekeeper, mirroring Max Holloway, needing to clear out contenders before earning another shot? The possibilities are captivating.
Lee: I`m giving it a 7 out of 10, and that feels almost generous. Isn`t a 7 the baseline for a UFC title fight?
Like many fans, my initial reaction after their first fight was “Okay, we`ve seen that, no need for a rematch soon.” So, I wasn`t thrilled O`Malley seemed to wait for this immediate second chance. However, aside from seeing Umar Nurmagomedov challenge Dvalishvili again, there aren`t many other immediate contenders who excite me for Merab`s next fight. Cory Sandhagen wasn`t available, we`ve seen Petr Yan, and fighters like Aiemann Zahabi or Mario Bautista aren`t title threats yet. Patchy Mix might be, but not immediately.
So, I`ve come around on Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2, accepting the rationale for running it back:
- It`s a title fight.
- It`s the main event.
- It features the champion and a former champion.
- It`s a rematch.
Good enough. I`m back in. 7/10.
Meshew: To be honest, I`m absolutely shocked you guys are rating it so highly. I can recall very few times in history where a fight announcement generated such widespread negative reaction from the fanbase. I`m sticking with a 2 out of 10, and that`s being generous.
Let`s start with the negatives: This is one of the most questionable title bookings in recent memory. While UFC frequently lowers the bar (like potentially giving Yair Rodriguez another shot over Movsar Evloev), this one is particularly bad. O’Malley had only one successful title defense, the rather unearned rematch against Chito Vera, before losing the belt to Merab. Even before becoming champion, his resume lacked significant wins in the division. To grant him an immediate rematch just nine months after a clear decision loss to Merab is simply preposterous.
Then there`s the fight itself. Honestly, how many of you have gone back and rewatched their first bout? I bet the number is tiny because it wasn`t an entertaining watch. That was only nine months ago, and while you can always hope for things to be different, the most probable outcome is a repeat of the performance that bored us the first time.
And that leads to my biggest issue with this fight: Merab Dvalishvili himself. He is undeniably the best bantamweight currently and building a case for being among the greatest ever, but I`m done pretending he`s interesting to watch. He simply isn`t. He`s an incredibly skilled fighter who masterfully uses his abilities for a dominant title run, and I won`t diminish that achievement. However, I have no desire to watch him compete. It reminds me of how James Harden`s reliance on three-pointers and free throws made me dislike watching basketball. Devising a way to `break` the game is smart and effective, but it doesn`t necessarily translate to entertainment, at least not for me. If I wanted to watch a test of endurance, I`d watch CrossFit. Until Merab actually tries to finish an opponent instead of just wearing them out, I won`t be excited for his title defenses.
The State of Women`s Bantamweight
Lee: I`m not sure I grasp the question; is the division considered problematic? *chuckle*
Okay, even looking through optimistic eyes, I can concede the women`s 135-pound weight class might not be the deepest or most compelling. Could a spectacular performance by Kayla Harrison change that? It won`t fix everything instantly, but having a dominant and intriguing champion at the top is always a positive development.
First, we shouldn`t discount the possibility of Julianna Peña giving Harrison a tough fight and potentially earning a rematch to continue their rivalry. Say what you will about “The Venezuelan Vixen,” but she`s relentlessly determined both in and out of the cage, and she`s exactly the type of fighter who would stick around long enough for a chance to become a three-time UFC champion.
Then there`s the Amanda Nunes factor. While she wouldn`t likely return just to fight Peña, a matchup with Harrison, her former training partner, has been frequently discussed. That would be a legitimate pay-per-view headliner.
Add the potential for Valentina Shevchenko winning a superfight against Zhang Weili and then moving up to challenge Harrison, and suddenly, this division could generate some real buzz again.
Meshew: No. This division is effectively finished, it just doesn`t realize it yet.
It`s like in movies where a character performs CPR on someone already gone, keeping the heart pumping momentarily but refusing to accept the reality. That`s the women`s bantamweight division right now. Sure, maybe Kayla wins, and then there`s the Nunes fight, which might keep it alive for a little while longer. But to what end?
There`s no influx of new talent coming into women`s bantamweight. The UFC simply hasn`t invested in developing what was once their premier women`s division (light heavyweight coincidentally faces a similar issue). There are hardly any fighters on the roster, they compete infrequently, and no fresh talent is emerging. Just look at the rankings.
Chelsea Chandler is ranked based on one bantamweight win from Invicta back in 2019! Miesha Tate is still hanging around the rankings, for crying out loud! The only somewhat new potential contender was Macy Chiasson, and she just lost what was arguably the worst fight of the year to Ketlen Vieira.
I say this not to be harsh, but with a clear understanding of the situation: If Kayla Harrison wins on Saturday, they should book her against Nunes for what should be billed as the *last* women`s bantamweight title fight. Make it a big event marking the retirement of the belt, and then phase out the division. Maybe in a few years, they could revive it, similar to how lightweight was brought back.
Heck: Hmm… is it salvageable? Kind of? But it would require a combined effort for any short-term improvement.
Amanda Nunes is hinting at a comeback, and in my opinion, that only happens if Kayla Harrison wins the title – and I emphasize “if.”
I`ve heard predictions everywhere that Pena is about to be dominated by Harrison, and that outcome is certainly possible. Call me crazy, but I`m genuinely looking forward to this fight because I believe Pena has a better chance than many people give her credit for. Harrison hasn`t been tested in prolonged MMA wars very often, and in her tougher fights, she lost to Larissa Pacheco and had a competitive decision against Ketlen Vieira. The longer Pena can stay in the fight, the more the outspoken former champion can potentially close the gap. However, if Harrison finishes Pena quickly, the demand for Harrison vs. Nunes would be huge.
But what happens after that? That`s the crucial question, and a major problem for the division. Women`s 135 lbs is struggling right now, largely due to the sheer lack of available fighters.
Other Fights to Watch at UFC 316
Meshew: Oh wow, I just checked the rest of this card, and, um, yeesh. Either the UFC has enormous faith in Sean O’Malley’s (and maybe Kayla Harrison’s) drawing power, or they`ve completely given up on filling out this event. Usually, a pay-per-view features 1-2 elite fights at the top followed by solid B-level matchups, or it`s a collection of B+ fights throughout. UFC 316 seems to split the difference with two debatable title fights and a whole lot of bouts that make you think “Does It Look Like I Give A ****?”. Bold strategy, indeed.
I`ll skip discussing Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Mix because that individual is irrelevant to me. His name is forbidden, which makes talking about him difficult, even though Patchy Mix is a much-needed fresh face. Beyond that, the most significant fight on paper is probably Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (ranked heavyweights!), but honestly, no interest.
Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum *could* be fun, but there`s always the risk of Pyfer having weight-cut issues, getting sick, and then blaming someone else. So, let`s put that aside. That leaves Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland as perhaps the only genuinely compelling non-title fight (with a shout-out to Joshua Van, who is consistently entertaining).
Luque, at 33, fights like he`s been through a hundred wars, but he remains a dangerous fighter and is almost always involved in exciting bouts. Holland has somewhat derailed his career by fighting unsuccessfully at middleweight, where he`s not at his best. But this fight is back at 170 pounds, where he`s significantly more capable, so I anticipate a good scrap. Holland probably wins, but it should be entertaining while it lasts, and on paper, might be the last enjoyable fight of the night.
Heck: Despite the buzz among hardcore fans, the casual audience needs to pay attention to Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix. I could write a thousand words about my enthusiasm for this fight, but for those unfamiliar with Mix, he was the last Bellator bantamweight champion. He`s been sidelined since PFL acquired Bellator due to various reasons. Fortunately, PFL allowed Mix to move on and compete where he can truly demonstrate he`s among the best 135-pound fighters in the world.
I`ll admit, Mix`s recent performance against Magomed Magomedov gave me slight pause. Perhaps he was less motivated in an organization he wanted to leave, or maybe Magomedov is better than perceived. Regardless, this matchup is perfect. Why? Because in 15 minutes or less, we`ll likely understand Mix`s potential ceiling in the UFC.
If Mix dominates Bautista, particularly with a finish, he`ll emerge from the event looking like a superstar and could even secure a title shot next. If he loses to Bautista, he`ll likely remain a perennial top-10 fighter globally but won`t contend for a UFC title. Outside of the two championship bouts, no fighter on the card has more riding on their performance than Patchy Mix.
Lee: I`m going for a deep cut here and highlighting Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro.
Granted, this is more about endorsing Murzakanov himself than just this specific fight, considering he`s one of the biggest favorites on the card besides Kayla Harrison. However, I`ve been impressed by his performances so far, and I believe he`s not far from a title opportunity in the relatively thin light heavyweight division.
At 36, Murzakanov knows he has no time to waste. He`ll be aiming to make a strong statement, hoping to improve his UFC record to 5-0 and build a compelling case for a title shot soon. Although it`s buried on the preliminary card, Murzakanov vs. Ribeiro could very well be a showcase fight featuring a future title challenger for 2026.
