Belal Muhammad`s first defense of the welterweight championship was originally scheduled five months ago. Its delay has unexpectedly complicated the landscape across three weight classes.
Muhammad was set to defend his title against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, but a foot infection forced him out. Since then, much has changed. New legitimate contenders have emerged at 170 pounds, including Muhammad’s opponent at UFC 315, Jack Della Maddalena. Adding another layer of intrigue is the buzz surrounding Muhammad’s friend, lightweight king Islam Makhachev.
If Muhammad were to lose this Saturday, it could potentially open a path for Makhachev to move up to challenge Della Maddalena for the welterweight belt. However, such a move raises questions about Ilia Topuria, who recently vacated the featherweight title with aspirations of competing for a belt at 155 pounds. If Muhammad wins, does this make a Makhachev vs. Topuria fight the clear next step (especially with UFC 317 needing a main event), or does Topuria still need to prove himself against a top lightweight contender to earn his shot?
UFC 315 might not be the most heavily promoted event of the year, but it features pivotal matchups that could significantly impact multiple divisions. MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew recently discussed the potential storylines emerging from the UFC`s return to Montreal, including whether flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko might set up a superfight with Zhang Weili.
The Impact of a Belal Muhammad Victory
Panelists debated whether a successful title defense by Belal Muhammad would align with the UFC`s strategic plans.
Alexander K. Lee: Advocating for significant change, Lee argued that a Jack Della Maddalena victory is essential. He believes “JDM” winning would trigger a chain reaction, allowing Islam Makhachev to move up to welterweight, creating a vacant lightweight title for which Ilia Topuria could compete, before Makhachev potentially returns to lightweight to finally settle the rivalry with Topuria. Lee acknowledged that Rakhmonov was the initially favored challenger but injuries shifted the opportunity to Della Maddalena.
Mike Heck: Taking the opposing view, Heck found the prospect of Muhammad retaining his title equally interesting. He praised Muhammad as vastly underrated and expressed curiosity about how his title reign might unfold through potential future defenses against Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry, and others. Heck also noted the abundance of compelling lightweight title fights still available for Makhachev, particularly mentioning Arman Tsarukyan as a deserving future challenger.
Jed Meshew: Meshew proposed a dramatic, albeit highly improbable, scenario as the “best” outcome for the UFC: Belal Muhammad wins, then immediately vacates the welterweight title to move up to middleweight. He argued that while Muhammad is a great fighter, the UFC doesn`t view him as an ideal champion due to his often less-exciting fights and perceived lack of captivating presence on the microphone. A voluntary relinquishment, in Meshew`s view, would be beneficial, allowing for a highly anticipated welterweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Shavkat Rakhmonov. He also speculated about Muhammad potentially facing Khamzat Chimaev at middleweight, possibly for an interim title.
Who Is Next for Valentina Shevchenko?
The discussion turned to the future of the flyweight division and identifying the next likely challenger for champion Valentina Shevchenko, potentially after a superfight.
Jed Meshew: Meshew was skeptical that Natalia Silva would emerge as the top contender, doubting her chances against Alexa Grasso and believing she lacks significant buzz currently. He favored the winner of the upcoming Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber fight as the likely next challenger, citing that bout`s main event status and the higher profile of both fighters compared to Silva.
Alexander K. Lee: Lee expressed a desire for movement in the division, hoping to see Natalia Silva defeat Alexa Grasso decisively to solidify her position as the number one contender. He believes Silva could offer a fresh challenge for Shevchenko and potentially possesses the skills to win, perhaps catching Shevchenko in a decline as Silva approaches her prime. Lee also mentioned other compelling potential opponents and stated his preference for champions defending their belts within their own division rather than pursuing fights in others.
Mike Heck: Heck agreed that Natalia Silva, nicknamed “Natty Ice,” *should* be next with a win over Alexa Grasso. However, he predicted that Zhang Weili would likely be the next opponent regardless of other results, suggesting time is running out to make that superfight happen. Heck believes a Shevchenko vs. Weili matchup is needed to provide a spark to the women`s divisions, and that Silva, even with a win over Grasso, might have to wait for her title shot.
Potential Breakout Stars at UFC 315
The experts highlighted fighters on the card who have the potential to significantly raise their profile with a strong performance.
Mike Heck: Heck reiterated his pick of Natalia Silva (“Natty Ice”). He described her fighting style as exciting and her personality as contagious, capable of resonating with fans. He believes a win over Grasso wouldn`t be boring and her post-fight presence could generate significant excitement for her future.
Jed Meshew: Meshew initially pointed to Benoit Saint Denis vs. Joel Alvarez, but with that fight off the card, he defaulted to his “on brand” choice: Jose Aldo. Despite calling his matchup against Aiemann Zahabi poor matchmaking, Meshew lauded Aldo as one of the greatest fighters ever, consistently proving his elite status even past his prime and in a tougher weight class. Meshew boldly predicted Aldo would win and, in a surprising turn, the UFC would acknowledge past mishandling of his career and grant him a bantamweight title shot against Merab Dvalishvili, potentially replacing an injured Sean O`Malley at UFC 316.
Alexander K. Lee: Lee focused on Jasmine Jasudavicius as a fighter poised for a breakthrough moment. He noted that the Canadian fighter is a late bloomer who has delivered a series of impressive performances, including a victory over recent bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva. Facing former champion Jessica Andrade, Lee believes a strong showing from the 36-year-old Jasudavicius could elevate her from a notable contender to a legitimate title challenger, a role he feels Canada has been lacking recently.
