Belal Muhammad`s first defense of his title marks the initial step in the UFC`s upcoming schedule. Without taking away from this significant moment for Muhammad, it`s understandable that fans are already looking ahead beyond the welterweight champion`s main event bout at UFC 315 against Jack Della Maddalena. The broader implications are quite clear.
These potential future matchups are substantial and naturally draw attention away from Della Maddalena`s challenge. While Della Maddalena is a deserving contender, many consider Shavkat Rakhmonov to be the true number one contender at 170 pounds. Unfortunately, opportunities for the undefeated Rakhmonov to face Muhammad have twice fallen through due to injuries on both sides.
This leaves us anticipating intriguing potential paths: a lineup of tough contenders for Muhammad if he retains, a major superfight opportunity for Della Maddalena if he manages an upset, and a possible high-profile bout for Ilia Topuria, who recently vacated his featherweight belt to pursue a second undisputed title.
UFC 315 Event Information
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Canada
Date: Saturday, May 10
Broadcast: Early Prelims begin 6:30 p.m. ET, Prelims at 8 p.m. ET, Main Card (PPV) at 10 p.m. ET.
Main Card Predictions
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena is an exciting challenger and a skilled fighter currently in good form, possessing knockout power. However, it`s difficult to see how he can keep this fight standing, which is essential for his path to victory.
Assuming Belal Muhammad isn`t solely relying on striking (despite any claims otherwise), the likely scenario involves Muhammad using just enough striking to close the distance. He will then look to change levels, secure takedowns, clinch against the fence, body lock, and utilize every possible method to bring Della Maddalena to the canvas. Despite Della Maddalena`s best efforts to stay upright, a takedown seems inevitable.
This might sound like a predictable outcome, but Della Maddalena hasn`t consistently demonstrated strong takedown defense, even in fights he has won. If he struggled to stay standing against Bassil Hafez, it`s hard to imagine him preventing Muhammad from controlling him on the ground for 25 minutes. Even considering the possibility of a late knockout over five rounds, Della Maddalena has never fought past three rounds, making his gas tank for championship duration uncertain.
The prediction is for Muhammad to retain his title, setting up potential future matchups. Dana White gets the blockbuster main event he`s likely hoping for later.
Pick: Muhammad
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Money has favored Valentina Shevchenko throughout the week, which makes sense. It was initially surprising to see her listed as an underdog. After all, this is Valentina `Bullet` Shevchenko.
While she is older and the fight game waits for no one, her success has never been solely dependent on pure athleticism. Shevchenko`s achievements stem from a combination of well-rounded skill, strategic intelligence, and extensive experience – qualities that are more resistant to the effects of aging. Her approach in the third fight against Alexa Grasso, focusing on a specific strategy and executing it effectively, demonstrates the mark of a clever fighter.
Manon Fiorot certainly presents significant challenges. She has a size advantage over the former champion, meaning Shevchenko can`t simply muscle her around. If Shevchenko attempts one of her signature throws, she must be precise, otherwise Fiorot could end up in a dominant top position ready to inflict damage. Fiorot is also fearless on her feet, even against Shevchenko`s elite striking background. While not overly flashy, the French fighter is effective, frequently pressing forward with combinations and a powerful left hand. It`s possible Fiorot could land a big shot early and completely alter the fight`s dynamic.
However, the prediction here is that such an early upset doesn`t happen, and Shevchenko delivers another masterclass performance, reinforcing her status as arguably the greatest female fighter in MMA history.
Pick: Shevchenko
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Firstly, credit to Jose Aldo for… well, technically not missing weight! Just before the legendary fighter stepped onto the scale, it was announced his bout with Aiemann Zahabi would proceed as a featherweight contest. Aldo weighed in at 143 lbs, and Zahabi at 142 lbs. No controversy here!
Aldo having difficulties on the scale isn`t new for the Brazilian icon, so picking against him based purely on his weigh-in appearance would be risky. It`s expected that a rehydrated (and potentially less drawn-out than usual) Aldo will perform near his prime, or at least as close as possible for a 38-year-old. Few fighters in the world are willing to stand and trade strikes with Aldo, with only the absolute elite having successfully out-dueled him on the feet.
Zahabi is a sharp and skilled fighter, but does he possess the technical ability to defeat Aldo in a striking battle? Very few strikers (with a notable exception like Petr Yan) have matched Aldo`s combination of aggression and adaptability. Even the well-coached Zahabi is likely to struggle exchanging shot-for-shot. It`s also highly unlikely he can secure a finish in a way we`d rather not recall.
While it`s debatable why Aldo continues to be matched against active contenders rather than competing in potential legend bouts, he undeniably remains a formidable opponent for the current crop of fighters.
Aldo predicted to win by decision.
Pick: Aldo
Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
Alexa Grasso against Natalia Silva is the most challenging fight to predict on the main card.
Frankly, Grasso did not look her best in the third fight against Shevchenko. Perhaps Shevchenko was simply the superior fighter all along, or maybe Grasso`s takedown defense remains a critical weakness, or perhaps she simply had her worst performance at the worst possible moment. Regardless, it`s understandable that the odds favor Silva as she appears poised to leapfrog Grasso on her path towards a title opportunity.
“Natty Ice” Silva is particularly dangerous in striking exchanges, and while sharp boxing has been Grasso`s strength for much of her career, it`s difficult to envision her matching Silva`s volume and accuracy. Grasso may attempt to use offensive wrestling to disrupt Silva`s rhythm. However, it`s hard to see Grasso winning the fight entirely this way; it might only delay the inevitable outcome.
Silva has consistently risen to the occasion with each step up in competition. This represents her biggest challenge yet, but she is not expected to falter. Silva secures the win and earns her position as the likely next challenger for the flyweight title.
Pick: Silva
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
Let`s be realistic: an upset by Kyle Prepolec here isn`t highly probable. However, he stands a good chance of making Benoit Saint Denis work hard for the win.
Perhaps it`s Canadian partiality, but it was encouraging to see Prepolec not only get a call on short notice to replace an injured Joel Alvarez but also participate in the pre-fight press conference. Make no mistake, though, he`s not just happy to be back in the UFC; he genuinely believes he can win this fight.
Saint Denis is at a pivotal point in his career. After securing five consecutive finishes, he was viewed as a dark horse contender in the lightweight division. However, he then suffered a tough loss to Dustin Poirier followed by a humbling defeat to Renato Moicano. So, what defines him now? Is he a developing prospect entering his sixth year as a professional, or an inexperienced fighter whose progress has been significantly hindered? There`s much to learn from this bout, even if it wasn`t the initially planned matchup fans anticipated.
Despite these questions, Saint Denis is expected to get the victory. That said, Prepolec is unlikely to be easily finished and will probably come out aggressively early, hoping to catch Saint Denis off guard. However, the skill differential is too significant to confidently pick Prepolec outright. He is expected to fall short against Saint Denis, but potentially in a performance worthy of `Fight of the Night` honors.
Pick: Saint Denis
Preliminary Card Predictions
- Mike Malott def. Charles Radtke
- Modestas Bukauskas def. Ion Cutelaba
- Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Jessica Andrade
- Navajo Stirling def. Ivan Erslan
- Bruno Silva def. Marc-Andre Barriault
- Jeong Yeong Lee def. Daniel Santos
- Bekzat Almakhan def. Brad Katona
