Alex Pereira dominated headlines in 2024, but with a new year, questions arise about his continued success.
Despite an undeniably impressive reign as light heavyweight champion, it’s argued that Pereira benefited from facing opponents who couldn’t exploit his weaknesses in grappling. This will be severely tested at UFC 313, where he meets the formidable Magomed Ankalaev.
Ankalaev, known for his striking prowess, has also demonstrated strong wrestling capabilities. This grappling threat could be the key to unraveling the “Poatan Puzzle”.
MMA experts Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew discuss the potential end of Pereira’s winning streak and other key aspects of UFC 313.
Lee: While keeping disciplines separate isn’t always necessary, Ankalaev should strategically blend striking and wrestling to defeat Alex Pereira.
Of course, a knockout victory for Ankalaev against Pereira would significantly boost his reputation. Despite the allure of a stand-up fight, Ankalaev’s most sensible path to victory lies in utilizing his wrestling skills. However, I believe Ankalaev can integrate wrestling to disrupt Pereira, creating openings for strikes later in the fight. Pereira’s reign might conclude dramatically, not quietly.
Meshew: An Ankalaev knockout of Pereira would be unexpected. Pereira is the superior striker, but Ankalaev’s power, the unpredictable nature of MMA, and Pereira’s recent busy schedule could play a role. Fighting so frequently can take a toll, potentially creating an opportunity.
However, if Ankalaev wins, it will likely be through a strategic approach, avoiding a striking battle with Pereira, except perhaps for Israel Adesanya, even that is uncertain. Pereira’s defensive wrestling is better than perceived, but he’s not impenetrable. Ankalaev’s path to victory is through superior grappling and imposing his will.
Heck: I’m predicting a Pereira victory. But, if Pereira’s impressive run ends, expect Dana White to downplay it, similar to his reaction after Belal Muhammad’s victory over Leon Edwards, calling it uneventful.
Ankalaev is a very skilled fighter, and consistent early takedowns would give him a strong chance. However, if he sticks to his promise of a stand-up fight, it will likely be detrimental. An Ankalaev win would probably be a grappling-heavy, less exciting fight, with Pereira spending a significant portion on his back.
Heck: Realistically, a title shot for Rafael Fiziev seems unlikely. But in the UFC, especially in the current climate, availability and unexpected events can change things. So, while improbable, it’s not impossible.
Fiziev’s chances against Justin Gaethje are slim unless he delivers a spectacular knockout. Gaethje is favored by the UFC and fans alike. A dominant win over Fiziev, especially a finish, could put Gaethje in title contention. The question then is who he would face, especially if Jack Della Maddalena defeats Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, potentially leading to Islam Makhachev moving to welterweight.
Lee: Agreed, the lightweight title picture is uncertain.
Continuing on that thought, if Della Maddalena upsets Muhammad, Makhachev might pursue the welterweight title, triggering a chain reaction. Muhammad could move to middleweight, and Topuria could face the UFC 313 co-main event winner for the vacant lightweight title.
It sounds improbable, but given the unpredictable nature of 2025, a Topuria vs. Fiziev lightweight title fight isn’t entirely out of the question. Even more unexpected scenarios could happen, like Jon Jones fighting Tom Aspinall. The MMA landscape is always evolving.
Meshew: No, a title shot for either fighter in the Gaethje vs. Fiziev bout is unlikely immediately. Fiziev is coming off two losses, and Gaethje was recently brutally knocked out by Max Holloway. This fight seems more about determining who faces Dan Hooker next, which is somewhat repetitive.
However, if Della Maddalena defeats Muhammad, Makhachev’s welterweight move could change things, potentially leading to Topuria vs. Oliveira or Tsarukyan for the lightweight belt.
This will likely be an entertaining but ultimately less consequential fight, which is a bit disappointing given Gaethje’s career stage.
Meshew: The must-watch fight is Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya, but the fighter I’m most interested in is Jalin Turner.
I’m a big fan of Turner due to his unique style and potential, despite his flaws. He’s currently in a tough spot and needs to defend his top-15 ranking. A strong performance against Ignacio Bahamondes is crucial. I expect Turner to dominate and remind everyone of his threat in the lightweight division.
Heck: My fighter to watch is Mauricio Ruffy.
Like his teammates Jean Silva and Carlos Prates, Ruffy is very entertaining. The question is his ceiling: Is he a consistently exciting fighter who will hover around the lower top-15, or does he have the potential to climb higher in the lightweight rankings?
Saturday’s fight against veteran King Green will provide some answers. A dominant win over Green would suggest Ruffy has significant potential.
Lee: For me, it’s Mairon Santos, a ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ winner.
Despite being recognized as a top prospect in Brazil back in 2021, Santos was surprisingly picked late in ‘TUF 32’. He impressed throughout the tournament, culminating in a dominant win over Kaan Ofli in the final. Still young and training with Eric Nicksick, Santos shows promise as a featherweight prospect.
A strong showing against Francis Marshall will set Santos up for a significant 2025 and a potential top-15 ranking in 2026.
