The highly anticipated fight between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev is finally upon us.
This Saturday at UFC 313 in Las Vegas, Pereira will defend his light heavyweight championship against Ankalaev. Considered by many to be Pereira’s toughest challenge at 205 pounds, this fight has been brewing for almost two years. How can each fighter secure victory and leave Las Vegas as the UFC champion? Let’s break it down.
This marks the fourth time in a year that I’ve analyzed a Pereira fight. As with UFC 307, finding fresh perspectives on Pereira, nicknamed “Poatan,” is becoming challenging. Everyone knows Pereira’s strengths, yet none in the light heavyweight division have been able to overcome them.
Pereira’s fighting style is fundamentally based on two key weapons: his left hook and his low kicks. While he possesses a wider range of techniques, these two are paramount. His devastating left hook grabs headlines, but it’s his subtly damaging low kicks that are likely to be his main route to victory this Saturday.
Like Odysseus choosing between Scylla and Charybdis, opponents facing Pereira must decide which threat to prioritize. Focusing too much on avoiding the knockout left hook often leaves them vulnerable to the accumulating damage of low kicks, which weaken their legs and diminish their effectiveness as the fight progresses. This is a significant issue for Ankalaev, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks in the past. Jan Blachowicz almost defeated Ankalaev primarily with calf kicks, and Pereira is a far more skilled kicker than Blachowicz.
Therefore, Pereira’s path to victory on Saturday is straightforward: target Ankalaev’s legs with low kicks. It’s one of Pereira’s strongest assets and a known weakness for Ankalaev. Keep distance and relentlessly attack Ankalaev’s legs. While Ankalaev will likely attempt takedowns, weakened legs will make wrestling increasingly difficult. Consistent early leg kicks should turn Ankalaev into an easier target in later rounds. Additionally, using teep kicks will help maintain distance and control the range of the fight.
Despite the emphasis on Pereira’s advantages, Ankalaev is a formidable challenger. In fact, he arguably has the best chance of anyone in the 205-pound division to defeat Pereira.
Ankalaev’s primary strength is his grappling. Although Pereira is a BJJ black belt, most believe he is more vulnerable on the ground than in striking exchanges. Ankalaev is a top-tier wrestler in the light heavyweight division, successfully taking down every opponent he has attempted to. Pereira has been taken down by Jan Blachowicz, who is not as strong a wrestler as Ankalaev, suggesting Ankalaev will likely secure takedowns in this fight.
If Ankalaev can get Pereira to the ground, the fight becomes significantly more challenging for the champion. Ankalaev excels at inflicting damage from top position. Anthony Smith experienced this firsthand, and Jan Blachowicz also struggled under Ankalaev’s top control. When Ankalaev secures takedowns, he makes them count, something Blachowicz couldn’t consistently do against Pereira.
However, Ankalaev isn’t limited to grappling. While low kicks are a weakness, Ankalaev is also a dangerous striker with considerable power, excellent timing, and a potent right hand, especially when switching to a southpaw stance. He also possesses a strong chin, having only been dropped once and never been knocked out. Although Pereira is the superior striker overall, MMA history is full of instances where the “better striker” was defeated.
This isn’t to suggest Ankalaev should prioritize striking with Pereira, but his ability to compete in all areas of MMA is crucial. In high-level MMA, a fighter cannot neglect any aspect of the game. If Ankalaev solely relies on desperate takedown attempts, he will likely lose. However, his striking ability will make his grappling attempts more effective, significantly increasing his chances of winning.
Beyond fight strategy, other factors add intrigue to this matchup. Pereira is fighting for the fourth time in under a year, a demanding schedule at this elite level, especially considering his travel and other commitments. Questions arise about his focus and potential fatigue.
On Ankalaev’s side, he is currently observing Ramadan. While he may be making some adjustments to his fasting, it still presents a significant challenge when preparing for a fight of this magnitude, especially with weight cutting. This is only the second time Ankalaev has fought during Ramadan, and the stakes are considerably higher than his previous experience.
Prediction
Logically, this appears to be a favorable matchup for Pereira. Ankalaev has a clear weakness Pereira can exploit, and Pereira’s takedown defense is likely better than many assume. However, external factors create uncertainty. There’s a sense that Pereira is already being considered for superfights with Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall. Pereira’s recent fight frequency is concerning; such a demanding schedule for a champion often leads to unexpected losses.
Against expectations, my intuition suggests Ankalaev will knock out Pereira with a right hand sometime in the middle rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev defeats Alex Pereira by KO (punch) at 3:07 of Round 2.
