Justin Gaethje’s next fight at UFC 313 could be a turning point in his career.
After a knockout loss to Max Holloway, the 36-year-old lightweight took a break to recover before scheduling his next fight. This Saturday, Gaethje will have a rematch against Rafael Fiziev, who stepped in on short notice to replace Dan Hooker due to a hand injury.
Gaethje previously won against Fiziev by decision, but this fight is more about the outcome than the opponent. A strong win could put Gaethje back in title contention, but another significant loss might make him consider retirement.
“He’s been open about it. He won’t continue fighting if he can’t become champion,” said UFC veteran Matt Brown about Gaethje on The Fighter vs. The Writer podcast. “I felt the same way in my career, which led to my retirement. What’s the point if you’re just fighting for money? Gaethje doesn’t seem interested in that. He wants to be champion.”
“Becoming champion is his only goal in this sport, and if it’s not achievable, he’ll leave. A win would put him back in the title picture. Beating Fiziev after a loss won’t guarantee a title shot, but it will open doors for fights that could get him back in the mix.”
Gaethje was expected to be in line for a title fight before he accepted the bout against Holloway at UFC 300 in April. That loss changed things, but Gaethje’s exciting fighting style means one win could quickly put him back in the championship conversation.
However, Gaethje is aware of the damage he takes in fights, which contributed to his extended break after the Holloway loss.
Instead of rushing back, Gaethje allowed his body and mind to heal, a decision Brown praises.
“It’s funny how guys like Justin Gaethje or Robbie Lawler are seen as reckless brawlers,” Brown noted. “But behind the scenes, they are some of the most intelligent and thoughtful people in the sport. Their fighting style doesn’t fully represent who they are.”
While Gaethje is known for his toughness and willingness to exchange punches, he has been working on his defense in recent years.
Brown believes a smarter, more strategic approach against Fiziev would be Gaethje’s best path to victory, but acknowledges Gaethje’s natural aggressive instincts.
“He has improved his defense and strategy lately,” Brown said. “But he still has that innate toughness, which Holloway exploited by urging him to brawl. It was clearly a mistake on Justin’s part.”
Regarding the impact of the Holloway knockout on Gaethje, Brown isn’t sure how it will affect him, as fighters react differently to such losses.
Brown only experienced a similar knockout once in his career, and it surprisingly had a positive effect.
“I was knocked out by Donald Cerrone once, and it didn’t bother me at all,” Brown shared. “It actually relaxed me a bit. I realized it wasn’t that bad. You wake up and think, ‘I must not have won since I’m waking up.'”
Brown can’t predict if Gaethje’s ability to absorb strikes will be different after UFC 300, but anything is possible.
Regarding the psychological impact of the loss, Brown hopes it won’t change Gaethje’s fighting style. Gaethje himself has said he’s “excited to be scared again” after the Holloway fight.
“It will be interesting to see if it’s a factor,” Brown said. “Fiziev is a tough opponent to face if you’re dealing with any psychological hesitation or fear of getting hit. Because you will get hit fighting Fiziev. It’s good that Gaethje is open about it. We’ll have to wait and see.”
“Gaethje’s style has always involved taking hits, so it could be a problem if he’s dealing with psychological issues.”
